Hu vs. Jiang

["brian turner" <bkt90@hotmail.com>]

>From: Marc Blecher <Marc.Blecher@oberlin.edu>
>To: zhongguo@openflows.org
>Subject: Re: PRC Statistics
>Date: Fri, 08 Oct 2004 08:58:09 -0400
>
>Jonathan is right on growth data.
>On inequality, see my notes for a recent talk at the APSA.
>Marc

Dr. Blecher: (or anyone else)

Thanks for the interesting and informative notes.

Could you elaborate on what the Hu/Wen vs. Jiang ideological debate is 
exactly?  Being in VN has made it hard to follow China like I used to.

And I thought your point about how addressing inequality might backfire by 
raising expectations.  But are the expectations already there?  In the 
1980s, China had growth with lower than normal inequality, won't people ask 
'why not more of that?'

My ignorant conjecture is the most important thing is how the inequality is 
perceived.  If it is perceived as being earned or somehow natural, it may be 
tolerated, but if it's perceived as the result of insider connections or 
special treatment, or luck, maybe not.

And I'd be curious to know whether people perceive local inequality 
different from inquality between large regions (e.g. NW vs SE).

On another issue, Joe Studwell (_The China Dream_) predicted the economy was 
in a gradual decline in the late 1990s, and I believed him at the time, but 
now the opposite seems the case.  Have you heard of any recent comments by 
him on this issue?  Has he revisited his argument?  Does anyone believe this 
is a growth bubble or is it real sustainable growth?

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