Jonathan is right on growth data. On inequality, see my notes for a recent talk at the APSA. Marc ======== > Brian, > > on GDP: > > Tom Rawski has written a lot on this. He seems to think that the > official stats are pretty good from 1978-1998, although even then they > may be overstating growth by 1-2 percentage points over the long-term. > The real problem for him happens in 1998 at which point the visible hand > of the 'baoba' spirit (maintain the eight!) takes over and guides the > numbers higher. But he no longer thinks that's the case. > > Everyone seems to agree that the lower you go down the bureaucratic > chain, the less trustworthy the data becomes, but the statistics bureau > of the *Central* Government is widely trusted. > > I'm also not sure how factoring in gray income would change GDP rates, > unless the ratios were changing significantly. And this is a problem for > all countries. Think of what the US GDP would be including the sale and > production of drugs. > > Rawski's homepage with some old articles: > http://www.pitt.edu/~tgrawski/ > > This (baaad url) brings up some more recent news articles that quote > from him: > http://www.chinastudygroup.org/index.php?search1=rawski&area1=text&action=news > &type=search > > -------- > > On inequality: > > 0.454 seems to be the official stat now: > > China Daily 2004-06-25: > "China's Gini Co-efficient, a standard international measurement of > income inequality, reached 0.454 in 2002, far above 0.4, which is the > threshold generally considered to be a cause for concern." > http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/chinagate/doc/2004-06/25/content_342517.htm > > Caijing 2004-02-23: > "The Gini index in rural China was 0.366 in 2002, compared with 0.381 in > 1995. The Gini index for urban China was 0.32, an increase of 4 > percentage points from 1995. The national Gini index average was 0.454, > up 1.7 percentage points from its 1995 level." [based on CASS survey] > http://caijing.com.cn/english/2004/040220/040220coverstory.htm > > Since the gini coefficient is a measure of income, not wealth, it's > unclear to me how factoring in bank accounts, etc., of the wealthy would > do to the coefficient. > > -------- > > Unemployment: > > 14% among urban permanent residents, and this is based on serious survey > data collected by CASS: > http://www.msu.edu/~gilesj/gpz2.pdf > > Unemployment in rural China: no one calls it that. You just hear these > fantastic numbers bandied about a 'surplus population' of 100-300 million. > > --- > > Health: > > Dunno, but this is a bit of a shocker: > > "According to the [CAS], programmers and managers working in Beijing's > hi-tech district of Zhongguancun, known as China's Silicon Valley, had > an average lifespan of 53 years and four months, five years less than a > decade ago. > > Journalists fared even worse. A study by 10 news organisations in > Shanghai revealed that the average lifespan of a reporter was 45 years. > Less than one in five of the city's journalists were said to live beyond > retirement age." > > perhaps perusing articles here will help: > http://www.chinastudygroup.org/index.php?action=news&type=search&area1=extra&s > earch1=health > > Cheers, > > Jonathan > > brian turner wrote: > >> What is the general perception about the reliability of GDP growth >> figures? Some commentators seem to think they are undervalued, at least >> one overvalued, and most seem to accept the official stats at face >> value. There are two questions related to this: (1) is there any >> conscious fraud in the figures (2) is the informal market so big they >> really can't count it accurately. >> >> In Vietnam, the petty capitalist informal off-the-books part of Hanoi's >> economy is so huge, frankly I don't see how any aggregate statistics >> could be anything but guesses. >> >> What about the Gini coefficient? (Measurement of inequality from 0 >> -1). The official figures are 0.4, but I read a Chinese critic who said >> that he thinks it might reach sky high Brazil levels (over 0.6) if >> hidden illicit wealth stashed away in secret bank accounts is included. >> >> What about rural poverty stats? Carl Riskin and others discredited some >> earlier stats, but what are the official stats showing regarding that >> now, and any comments by others on those? >> >> What about unemployment? >> >> Life expectancy and other health indicator trends in the last 4 years? >> >> _________________________________________________________________ >> Get ready for school! Find articles, homework help and more in the Back >> to School Guide! http://special.msn.com/network/04backtoschool.armx >> >> >> >> > Professor Marc Blecher Department of Politics Oberlin College Rice Hall 224 Oberlin, Ohio 44074 USA Office: 440.775.8493 Home: 440.774.4702 Mobile: 440.864.5039 Fax: 425.930.0507 E-mail: marc.blecher@oberlin.edu London: 2B Bridge Approach London NW1 8BD United Kingdom Home: (+44) (0) (20) 7681.4800 Mobile: (+44) (0) 7905.299644 Fax: (+44) (0)870.128.7503
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